The first analysis we deliver is about the gains in absolute value.
The model that has gained the most value is the luxury fake Patek Philippe Nautilus 5976/1G-001: its value has increased by almost €550,000 since 2018. This white gold model was released in 2016 for the 40th anniversary of the Nautilus. This anniversary replica watch for sale was a limited edition (1,300 pieces) and was, logically, reserved for the brand’s best customers. One example sold in May 2022 at Christie’s for €915,000, well above its high estimate. This was undoubtedly due to its mint condition, which made this example particularly desirable to buyers and made it an exciting investment piece.
On the second step of the podium is the perfect replica Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1R-001. This is an all rose gold model that would have been produced in approximately 1,200 pieces. This model had rapidly increased, and at the peak of its form in February 2022 it had an average gain of nearly €330,000. The market has since turned around, and the 1:1 fake Patek Philippe 5711/1R-001 has fallen significantly. Recent auction results show a value of approximately $200,000.
On the third step of the podium is the AAA fake Patek Philippe Nautilus 5980/1R-001. This is a pink gold Nautilus (case and bracelet) with the same complication (chronograph) as the anniversary model 5976/1G-001 on the podium’s top step. This model has been very fashionable and in February 2022 had an average selling price €290,000 higher than in January 2018. Since then, the speculative bubble has been deflating, and examples have been sold at auctions for below $300,000. This is far from a good deal, but it is clear that some high quality replica watches were benefiting from a craze driven by speculation.
